Thursday, October 11, 2007

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030.

Author (s): Mathers CD, Loncar D.

PLoS Med. 2006 Nov; 3(11): e442. published online before print November 28,
PMCID: 1664601

Date: 2006

Description: Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, the authors have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results.

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